Welcome to Week 9, Guillotine Leaguers!

I’m here every Tuesday offering Guillotine Leagues™️ waiver wire guidance to help you strategize your bidding.

Week 8 was a historic bloodbath. I've been doing this for six years, and I can't remember a week that had last week's double-whammy combination of a six-team bye week and a glut of high-profile dud games. You'll read about those players in a few minutes.

As a result, some great teams got chopped. I'm willing to wager, in your league, this is the best crop of free agents you've seen all year.

So, with some great names on the waiver wire, is it time to spend?

Week 9 Guillotine Leagues™ Waiver Wire Bidding Advice

Of course, the answer depends on your team's level of need, but I'm going to give a broad answer: Yes.

For me, Halloween is when I shift my Guillotine mindset. To this point, I've been advising you to save FAAB above all else, which comes at the expense of your roster. But, we're reaching a stage of the season where two things have shifted:

1. The price for end-game players has dropped significantly.

If you've saved FAAB, you're effectively getting a BOGO on end-game players: You can buy two for the price of one.

By waiting, you also gained an arbitrage victory by not investing significant FAAB in high-profile players who ended up hurt, like Bucky Irving, Omarion Hampton, James Conner, Malik Naber or Lamar Jackson, to name a few.

1. The remaining teams in your league are, mostly, quite good.  Prior to now, most Guillotine Leagues™️ had a few ill-conceived rosters that were going to provide easy chops for your league.  Those days are likely over. No longer can you count on the ineptitude of others to keep your team alive.

Regular readers, you know I never advocate for spending FAAB unnecessarily, including now. If you've got a great roster, keep saving FAAB. But we've hit the time of year when opening the wallet makes sense, especially for end-game players. They'll help you stay alive now, against tougher competition. And they'll help you in December when you're trying to win your league.

Also, be sure to listen to the CHOP Podcast, for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decision.

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Self-Evaluation, Take a Hard Look at Your Roster

Over the course of this story, you'll see a lot specific bidding advice. Those values need to be weighed against the strength of your roster and your likelihood of survival. You can’t bid correctly if you don’t establish your level of desperation—hopefully very little.

If you have a short-term roster problem due to bye weeks or injury, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks.

If your roster has a long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for months.

Broad Bidding Strategies

How much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

• End-game players:  These are guys who’ll be in your roster for the rest of the year, even through December. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. At this stage of the season, max your bidding on end-game players at around $200. No more, unless you’re already truly desperate.
• Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters, but only for another month or so. $10-$20. Be careful here. Throwing down $20 twice a week will drain your funds in short order.
• Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $0-$5.

The 10 Most Chopped Players From Week 8

As I mentioned at the outset, it's a crazy, maybe historic, week on the waiver wire. Eight of these 10 free agents are end-game players! Complicating matters, half this list is heading into their bye this week or next. Break out your abaci, because this week is ultra tricky!

10. SF RB Christian McCaffrey (13.0% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 98/100 (highest of any player!)
• Upcoming schedule: @NYG; LAR; @ARI
• Last week's median price: $353
• End-game player: YES
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $205
• Charch says: CMC is a make-or-break decision that will affect your entire season! No pressure! In full PPR leagues, McCaffrey is RB1 overall, despite consistently meager rushing totals. But, this is a very thorny decision. Someone else has already gotten CMC's healthiest eight games. You'll be getting an overworked, high-mileage, soft-tissue-injury-prone, 29-year-old runner, with 2,209 total touches.  But if he stays healthy, he's a league-winner.

9. DET RB Jahmyr Gibbs (13.1% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 84/100
• Upcoming schedule: MIN; @WAS; @PHI
• Last week's median price: $253
• End-game player: YES
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $250
• Charch says: With all due respect to other amazing backs, like Jonathan Taylor and Bijan Robinson, Gibbs is the NFL's most talented runner at the moment. He runs in an offense designed to maximize his many unearthly talents. And even with David Montgomery siphoning off some usage, Gibbs remains RB4 in Guillotine scoring. Gibbs is coming off a bye, with a long stretch of favorable matchups on the schedule.

8. LAC WR Quentin Johnston (13.6% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 66/100
• Upcoming schedule: @TEN; PIT; @JAC
• Last week's median price: $50
• End-game player: NO
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $0
• Charch says: It's Week 9, too late in the season to be starting guys who have zero-catch downside. The emergence of Oronde Gadsden appears to be devastating to Johnston's reliability.

7. CLE RB Quinshon Judkins (13.6% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 68/100
• Upcoming schedule: BYE; @NYJ; BAL
• Last week's median price: $165
• End-game player: NO
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $85
• Charch says: Getting the right bid on Judkins requires a nuanced discussion. He's dealing with a shoulder injury right now, but he's expected to return after this week's bye. The Browns feel like a ground-and-pound offense, spearheaded by Judkins. But they run at the third-lowest rate, just 37%. And his productivity has dipped of late. Over the past five weeks, Judkins was averaging a moribund 3.4 yards per carry, 24th among starters. He's dead last in yards before contact, at just .44 yards. Dillon Gabriel's noodle arm means defenders can play closer to the line of scrimmage, which adversely affects Judkins. Judkins doesn't catch, which creates a low floor and the prospect of dud games. Fortunately, Judkins was averaging 20 carries per game prior to last week's early departure, and volume goes a long way. According to the Fantasy Life Strength of Schedule tool, Judkins has the second-easiest remaining schedule.

6. MIN RB Jordan Mason (13.6% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 63/100
• Upcoming schedule: @DET; BAL; CHI
• Last week's median price: $65
• End-game player: NO
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $5
• Charch says: I wish I had something good to say about Jordan Mason, a good player stuck in a bad situation. The Vikings look adrift in every area, including a battered, ineffective offensive line. They'll be starting J.J. McCarthy on Sunday, and he generated almost no offense for the Vikings in his previous two starts. Minnesota's defense is faltering, providing pass-heavy game scripts that work better for Aaron Jones than Mason.

5. ATL RB Bijan Robinson (16.7% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 94/100
• Upcoming schedule: @NE; @IND; CAR
• Last week's median price: $402
• End game player: YES
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $275
• Charch says: Needless to say, Robinson is an elite fantasy producer, who helps you with runs, receptions and explosive plays—he's notched three gains of over 50 yards. Guys like Bijan don't show up on this list often. The only thing working against Bijan are his next two games, New England and Indy. They rank No. 1 and No. 8 in fantasy points allowed to running backs over the past five weeks. Still, he's a sure-fire end-game player with his bye week in the rear-view mirror.

4. ATL WR Drake London (16.8% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 81/100
• Upcoming schedule: @NE; @IND; CAR
• Last week's median price: $162
• End-game player: YES
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $95
• Charch says: Sunday's surprise inactive slaughtered fantasy managers who either didn't hear the news and started him or pivoted to an unhelpful player (Darnell Mooney, I'm lookin' at you). London had been motoring toward a very strong season, until Kirk Cousins derailed him. Michael Penix is expected to return this week and London should pick up where he left off, as a high-volume end-game player.

3. Dal QB Dak Prescott (17.2% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: NA
• Upcoming schedule: ARI; BYE; @LV
• Last week's median price: $35
• End game player: YES
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $25
• Charch says: If you weren't sure how good Denver's secondary was, last week is an eye-opening reminder. Prescott entered last Sunday's game as QB2 overall, averaging 285 yards and almost 3 touchdowns per game since the opener. Last week against Denver, he put up 188 scoreless yards. Dak remains an incredibly safe, valuable Guillotine asset, in part because his abysmal defense requires him to throw 37 times per game. He doesn't run much, which puts him a tier below guys like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts, but he's still an end-game player.

2. Dal TE Jake Ferguson (20.4% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: 89/100
• Upcoming schedule: ARI; BYE; @LV
• Last week's median price: $70
• End-game player: YES
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $75
• Charch says: The highest-scoring tight end is available in 20.4% of leagues!  Ferguson ranks No. 2 in utilization, No. 1 in targets per route run, No. 2 in targets and No. 1 in end zone targets. Impressive, but much of those stats were built on games without CeeDee Lamb. Still, he's an end-game asset at at tricky position. Ferguson has a juicy matchup against the Cardinals this week: They rank bottom-five to the position in yards and receptions allowed. But after that, he'll go on bye. If you bid on Ferguson, be ready with a Week 10 backup plan at the position.

1. TB QB Baker Mayfield (20.6% chop rate)

• Utilization Score: NA
• Upcoming schedule: BYE; NE; @BUF;
• Last week's median price: $29
• End-game player: YES
• Charch's recommended bid amount: $19
• Charch says: It's back-to-back dud games for Mayfield, and it's eyebrow raising, especially considering the opposing secondaries, Detroit and New Orleans. Granted, Emeka Egbuka is hurt, and Baker's playing without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. But, we've seen him perform heroics with Tez Johnson and Cade Otton in the past. We've grown accustomed to Mayfield finding his way to top-tier fantasy outings one way or another. Mayfield and the Bucs coaching staff have an extra week to figure things out. Hopefully Godwin (and maybe Jalen McMillan?) will be healthy by Week 10.

I don't do this most weeks, but check out the amazing next three most-chopped players, all superstars!

• 11th: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (I'd bid $250)
• 12th: Trey McBride (I'd bid $110, if you're still searching for a weekly TE starter)
• 13th: A.J. Brown (I'd bid $40)

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider for Guillotine usage. They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

It's a thin week for the regular guys. Instead, focus your spending on the many big-name players who just got chopped.

CLE RBs Dylan Sampson—Charch recommends $1.
At the time of this writing, it's unclear how much time Quinshon Judkins may miss, but with a bye week coming, he may not miss any game time. Still, if you're rostering Judkins and want a Week 10 hedge, you could throw a buck on Sampson. Jerome Ford appears to be third on the depth chart after getting zero rushes and two targets last Sunday.

NYG RB Tyrone Tracy—Charch recommends $20.
With Cam Skattebo's horrific season-ending ankle injury, Tyrone Tracy reverts to his former role as the Giants' starting running back. Tracy isn't as good as Skattebo, but should find his way to 10-15 touches a game. It'll be fascinating to see if Tracy will pick up Skattebo's four targets per game, which would be tremendously helpful in Guillotine's PPR scoring format. Tracy's other limiting factor will be a lack of touchdowns. Tracy has no touches from inside the 5 and only one touch in the red zone. Devin Singletary will likely get goal-line carries, which limits Tracy's upside. And, no I wouldn't bid on Singletary.

MIA RB Ollie Gordon—Charch recommends $0.
For once, a head coach told the truth! Last week, Mike McDaniel said he wanted to get Ollie Gordon more involved in his offense, and he actually did it!  Gordon got a career-high 10 carries and averaged a healthy 4.6 yards per carry. And, it wasn't all garbage-time carries in the Dolphins' improbable slaughter (some would call it a "birdemic") of the Falcons. De'Von Achane remains the starter and that's not changing until/unless there's an injury, but Gordon remains the goal-line back.

PHI RB Tank Bigsby—Charch recommends $0.
If there's an excuse to extol the virtues of Tank Bigsby, you know I'll do it!  With Saquon Barkley resting in the fourth quarter (groin, blowout), Bigsby got extended carries and made an emphatic point that he's the second-best runner on the team, ahead of Will Shipley and AJ Dillon. The Eagles are on bye this week, and Barkley will likely return in Week 10 against the Packers. But, if you want Barkley's handcuff, it's Bigsby.

Here's some bonus Bigsby coverage only I care about. Here's the yardage gained on each of his touches from Sunday: 18 yards, 0, 29, 8, 3, 10, 7, 12, 17.  Dude was a machine. A steel machine of war with treads and a gun. If only there was a word for it.

HOU WR Jaylin Noel—Charch recommends $0
Whenever (if ever?) Christian Kirk returns from injury, I'm not sure he gets his job back. The Texans have been more productive with Noel the past two weeks, with him producing 77 and 63 yards—solid numbers despite Noel running only 23 and 19 routes, respectively. I'd only bid $0 because he's not startable this week against Denver's defense, so he'll be chewing up a roster spot for two weeks.

GB WR Christian Watson—Charch recommends $0
In all probability, the Packers' wide receiver situation will remain a total clusterboink, fraught with danger for Guillotine players. But I'm mentioning Christian Watson for two reasons. First, good for him on a seemingly full recovery from his ACL; he ran 24 routes on Sunday night. Second, don't spend any FAAB on Packers' receivers. Watson creates one more mouth to feed in an already-unreliable receiver room. At this stage of the season, you need more reliability than the Packers receivers can offer.

LV WR Tre Tucker—Charch recommends $1
I think Jakobi Meyers will get his wish for a trade, which would leave Tre Tucker as the undisputed No. 1 receiver for the Raiders. Tucker's been incredibly inconsistent so far this year, but it's easy to envision him settling into reliable production down the road.

KC RB Kareem Hunt and Brashard Smith—Charch recommends $15 and $1, respectively
The severity of Isiah Pacheco's sprained MCL has not been disclosed, but typically it's a 2-4 week injury. Kareem Hunt is the presumed receipient of most of Pacheco's missing carries, particularly at the goal line where he scored twice on Monday night. Hunt's metrics are lousy, but Andy Reid seems to like his reliable veteran. Rookie Brashard Smith should also see an uptick in usage, but barring a breakout, will likely remain the second option in the backfield.

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