
We're handing out mid-season awards for MVP, best waiver add, and more! Plus, who's due for some TD regression? And a bold call for the Rams' backfield...

We are halfway through the fantasy season. Immeasurable amounts of blood, sweat, and tears have been shed on fantasy rosters already–and we're not done yet, people!
I don't care if you're 8-0 or 0-8 (okay, the latter would really suck, and I'm sorry if that's the case), but yeah: Our sole focus is coming away with a W in Week 9. Cool? Cool.
This brings us to today's goal: 10 mostly fantasy-relevant things to know ahead of Week 9 that ideally will help make you both a better fantasy manager and overall person. This week's topics:
As always: It's a great day to be great.
Eight weeks are in the book, so what better time than the present to hand out some absolutely meaningless mid-season awards!
Yahoo Fantasy actually has a cool "MVP" feature that tells you which players are on the highest percent of the top 500 Public League teams. Just five players appear on more than 30%:
With all due respect to each challenger, it's tough to deny who fantasy football's most-valuable player is entering Week 9
Winner: Colts RB Jonathan Taylor. The man is currently in the midst of the eighth best RB season since 2000 in terms of PPR points per game. He leads all fantasy players in scoring by 2.5 points and has scored 20+ PPR points in all but two games this season. And guess what? You were likely able to draft him in the second round back in August!

There are a few clear contenders here:
Unfortunately, we can only pick one winner, so …
Winner: Chargers WR Quentin Johnston. While Jones has been the most consistent, and Dowdle had the highest highs, you have to give Johnston credit for working as the freaking overall PPR WR4 during the first month of the season. It's also quite a bit more rare to get this sort of production off the waiver wire from a WR compared to other positions.
I conveniently calculated the biggest risers and fallers at QB, RB, WR, and TE alike last week. And boy is there a lot of pain there:
2025 is yet another example that we largely don't know sh*t about f*ck when it comes to predicting the future in a sport that basically consists of constant 11-on-11 car crashes while using a ball that isn't even round. With all that said…
"Winner": Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson. I think there's a decent argument for BTJ here when considering the difference in overall preseason ADP, but ultimately losers like myself were going so hard in the paint for Henderson that it only feels right to "crown" the rookie RB as the biggest bust in fantasy through eight weeks of action. Here's to hoping Week 8's season-best performance … 75 yards … is a sign of bigger and better things to come, but yeah: The Ohio State product's underwhelming efficiency and lack of overall volume (especially in the pass game) has been nothing short of disastrous for anyone who spent an early-round fantasy pick on the real-life second-rounder.
Before the season I was of the mindset that instead of complaining NFL teams should either:
But now? I think I'm good if this play expires following the 2025 season. There are near-weekly examples of the Eagles lining up offsides or false starting, and last week featured a new low when a Jalen Hurts fumble didn't count because the refs decided Hurts' forward momentum had been stopped (it hadn't). Clearly the play is nearly impossible to properly officiate; at this point I'd be surprised if it isn't banned following this season.
With this in mind: How much would the absence of the tush push impact Hurts in fantasy land? While the Eagles aren't the only team to heavily lean into this real life cheat code, Hurts has a whopping 45 charted QB sneaks from the one-yard line since taking over as the starter in 2021–Josh Allen (20) is the only other QB in double-digits. Hurts (147.4) and Allen (93) were the league's only QBs with more than even 45 fantasy points on rush attempts inside the five-yard line during the 2023-2024 seasons!
Of course, Hurts would likely still account for plenty of TDs in more traditional fashions from the one-yard line even in the absence of teammates shoving themselves up their quarterback's butt. There have been 159 total plays from the one-yard line this season, and teams have scored on 88 of them (55%). Having multiple cracks at the end zone from the goal line on the same drives would raise that TD rate to 85%. Of course, there would likely be more traditional RB involvement in these situations; let's compare what the the reigning Super Bowl MVP's fantasy original numbers would look like with 50% and 25% as many fantasy points on his rushing scores from the one-yard line in recent years to get an idea of what we could potentially expect in 2026 and beyond.

Still pretty, pretty, pretty good, but not exactly world-beating numbers for someone who has been a staple inside the early rounds of drafts for the better part of the last half decade. At a minimum, Hurts would likely find himself in a tier below the likes of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, while it'd also become more reasonable to prefer more pass-friendly options like Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow.
Of course, none of this matters in 2025, so Hurts' fantasy managers should continue to have all sorts of fun watching their QB spam TDs from the goal line following the team's Week 9 bye.
I firmly believe there is skill involved in scoring TDs. Defenses obviously defend the painted grass more than any other area on the field, so it seems wild to me that many fantasy nerds more or less equate some players scoring more than others with similar opportunities as completely random chance.
That said: There's some semblance of luck involved with certain players really running hot in terms of converting the overwhelming majority of their touches into six points. This is especially true for pass-catchers, who don't get the same sort of relatively easy scoring opportunities on the ground from the goal line.
After crunching the numbers, it turns out that three players sure seem to be in the good graces of the football gods, as these are the only dudes to catch a TD on north of 12% of their targets among 116 players with at least 25 targets this season.
Eagles TE Dallas Goedert (7 TDs on 39 targets, 17.9%): The veteran TE is inexplicably tied with Amon-Ra St. Brown for the league-high receiving TD mark. Madness, but it's thanks in large part to Goedert converting all five of his targets inside the 10-yard line into scores. The league-wide conversion rate this year is 45%, so it's safe to say Goedert is indeed running hot here, although several of these scores have been well-designed plays that feel a bit less fluky. There have been shovel passes, wonky screens, and admittedly just some good ole fashioned quality scores: Either way, only Darren Waller has had a higher percentage of his fantasy points directly attributed to TDS (53%) than Goedert (42%) among the position's top-20 producers this season. It'd make sense if Goedert continues to see a decent amount of fantasy-friendly goal line opportunities inside the Eagles' ninth-ranked scoring offense; just realize the man has under 45 receiving yards in all but one game this season–I'd be pretty surprised if Goedert's top-four standing at the position in PPR points per game holds the rest of the season.
Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte (5 TDs on 30 targets, 16.7%): It really has been wild to see Boutte make the most out of his opportunities this year. Consider: The third-year receiver has posted 5-93-2, 2-55-1, and 3-75-1 receiving lines over the last three weeks … on a total of 12 targets! Among 36 WRs averaging at least 12 PPR points per game, Boutte is the only one doing it on under 5.6 targets per game–and he's only at 3.8! Accordingly, it's tough to expect the good times to keep on rolling to THIS high of an extent–reminder that Boutte finished outside the top-55 WRs during Weeks 2-5–but hey, the 23-year-old talent certainly is playing some great football, is attached to anyone's idea of a great QB, and at a minimum has earned weekly boom-or-bust WR3/4 treatment.
Packers TE Tucker Kraft (6 TDs on 41 targets, 14.6%): Kraft's 16.2 PPR points per game are good for overall TE2 status following his Sunday night explosion (7-143-2) against the Steelers. Good news: His weekly target shares were already finally beginning to move in a positive direction after mostly making the most out of limited opportunities during the Packers' first five games of the season.

While getting Jayden Reed (collarbone, IR) back at some point could hurt Kraft's fantasy-friendly YAC opportunities, we're looking at one of the best real-life players at the position here. Similar to George Kittle, there will be some annoying duds along the way inside an offense that largely refrains from force feeding one individual WR or TE; just realize Kraft is cemented as a top-five TE the rest of the season–even if it'd be a lot cooler if we could more confidently project him for eight-plus weekly targets.
My definition:
Or, with thanks to Comet:

I decided to double-count these factors: An explosive touchdown featuring three broken tackles is worth five points, not one. Cool? Cool.
The leaderboard among all RBs with 50+ opportunities (full list is here):
I swear I didn't directly go into this trying to make a fuss about KWIII vs. Zach Charbonnet, but hey, we're here now, so just a friendly reminder that Walker has managed to be more explosive than Charbonnet (duh) while ALSO posting a superior stuff rate (percentage of carries tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage).

Side note: Look at TreVeyon Henderson up there in the top-right corner next to James Cook! I certainly wish it hadn't taken eight long, cold weeks to create some TreVeyon propaganda, but we finally got there. Yay!
Anyway: Obviously the Seahawks are winning football games and their coaches sure as hell know more about RB performance than I do. It also makes sense not to completely overload Walker with touches considering his rough injury history. The nature of Charbonnet's carries should also be considered, as he's faced eight-plus defenders in the box on a higher percentage of his carries than Walker (44% vs. 34%) and is generally leaned on in more obvious run situations.
But still: Cool shit tends to happen way more often when Walker touches the football. It'd be a lot cooler if we saw more of that moving forward, ya know? Alright that was fun–but let's pump the breaks on my random football stat ideas and get into some good ole fashioned usage, baby!
5. Week 9 RB Report: Kimani Vidal is a workhorse!
The below chart denotes every team's RB usage in Week 8:

READ: My full column on the State of the Running Back
Scouts honor that I'm writing this pre-research: My top-three guesses based on, you know, having a pulse would be the Cowboys, Bengals, and Jets. That's just the vibe I get from spending a large portion of my life poring over fantasy stats and watching as much football as possible without completely pissing off my wife.
Alright then, time to find out! Reminder: Havoc is the percentage of plays a defense gets a pressure, tackle for a loss, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup. Explosive plays are designated by 12+ yard rushes and 16+ yard completions (TruMedia).

We got two out of the three guesses right, but the Cowboys have been just a bit better in the havoc department to avoid full slander here. That should instead go to the Dolphins and Titans, who join the Bengals and Jets as the league's four worst defenses in simultaneously not creating havoc and allowing plenty of explosive plays. You could probably group the Ravens in there as well, although at least they have the excuse of especially brutal injury luck.
Otherwise: Shoutout to the Packers and Broncos for far and away working as the league's top-two defenses at creating a bunch of negative plays while also limiting explosives. The Seahawks and Rams also deserve some love here, particularly Seattle, who has dealt with a ton of injuries in the secondary through eight weeks of action.
Now let's use some of this handy dandy defensive research to get our minds right for some DST streamers!
Hopefully you're just simply continuing to sit pretty with the Patriots top-scoring DST, but not everyone can be so lucky, so here are three quality streamers to help get you through Week 9.
In order of preference among squads rostered in less than 50% of ESPN leagues as of Tuesday afternoon…
I also wanted to start to get a good idea of what groups fantasy managers can realistically ride out most of the second half of the season with. Things can obviously change in a hurry in the NFL, but the below graph denotes every team's strength of DST schedule from Weeks 9-17.

Takeaways:
I publish an early rankings column midday Monday throughout the season that gives my top-12 QB/TE and top-24 RB//WR alongside some honorable mention picks while also answering a handful of questions regarding some of the week's biggest storylines. You can read the full Week 9 piece here, but I also wanted to highlight the two biggest questions and answers I had.
*Law and Order Music*
These are their stories.
Is it time to buy low on Zay Flowers?
I think it is! My reasons:
Obviously the price and roster construction needs to be right, but I'm a BIG fan of the Flowers side of these trades that were completed on Yahoo on October, 27:
Who are the best available tight ends on the waiver wire?
Week 9 features the Browns TEs, Dallas Goedert, Cade Otton, and Mason Taylor on bye, while Week 10 will give Jake Ferguson and Travis Kelce the week off.
Accordingly, I'm looking to fill that lineup hole with one of the following three options. In order of preference (rostership percentage as of Tuesday afternoon):
… yeah!
Check out the Wednesday edition of The Fantasy Life Show featuring myself and that little kid from The League Matthew Freedman (The Oracle) breaking down each and every matchup in a crisp 52-ish minutes for more game-specific notes ahead of Week 9!
And I'm talking BOLD. No predicting Derrick Henry to have a big game, or Puka Nacua to have 100 yards: We're dumpster diving here in the pursuit of glory, but I swear there's legit reasoning to the madness (usually in the form of my weekly mismatch charts):
1. Caleb Williams shows out, throws for 300 yards and four TDs against Cincy. Williams makes several throws per game that show off his "generational" upside. What better week for the easy to finally be easy than against the Bengals' sad excuse for a professional defense?
2. Both Kyren Williams and Blake Corum post top-24 half-PPR numbers vs. the Saints. Kyren is obvious, but don't discount Corum sneaking into the end zone late in a likely blowout Rams win. After all, he's averaged 9.8 carries and targets per game over his last five excluding his fumble-induced benching in Week 5. Kyren leads the way in carries inside the 10-yard line (10), but Corum has also been involved near the goal line (5).
3. Josh Downs shreds the Steelers, catches 8 passes for 103 yards and a TD. Downs leads all Colts pass-catchers in targets per route run vs. man coverage (33%) and it isn't particularly close. Note that Tyler Warren sees his targets per route run go from 26% vs. zone to just 16% vs. man. Michael Pittman has nearly identical numbers, while Alec Pierce (25% vs. 16%) also gets a nice bump in one-on-one situations. The Steelers have run the fourth-most man coverage in the NFL this season.
Last week: Kyle Pitts didn't go as crazy as I predicted, but his 9-59-0 receiving line was still good for PPR TE6 honors on the week. … Jets RB Isaiah Davis did in fact record a top-24 finish (PPR RB10!). … And Alec Pierce unfortunately didn't go for 130 and score a 50-plus yard TD, but he did have a SWEET comeback route and hauled in an equally cool 50-yard catch. … As always: We'll watch the film and get better.
Thank you all for reading and best of luck in Week 9 and beyond!
