Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer Advice For Week 9: Buy Low on Aaron Jones

Catastrophic days are the toughest to get through.

Last week, I sprained my ankle trying out a new running path. I hobbled home only to find our fridge had stopped making ice. And then, to top everything off, my son broke the assembly of the sliding door of our van. In essence, a cavalcade of chaos. My fantasy lineups are in a similar state.

I’ve got Drake London, Cam Skattebo and Lamar Jackson on a roster. Starting Kirk Cousins and Darnell Mooney at the last minute, well, you know what happened next. When multiple things go wrong, it’s easy to lose sight of where to start fixing things. However, instead of overcorrecting, let’s see if there’s a more reasonable path to take to rebuilding our rosters.

Advice On Fantasy Football Trade Targets For Week 9

You’ll see me using descriptors like “viable” or “reasonable” for a simple reason. We need to protect our roster despite the obvious gaps. Sure, you might only have a couple of wins. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t other solid contributors on your squad. Said another way, focusing on fixing one problem versus making wholesale changes can keep you in competition. But, of course, in order to thread that needle, finding the right targets is the best approach.

Buy Lows

Aaron Jones – 45% share of the rushing attempts and a 14% target rate in his first game back; Jordan Mason snaps and routes down to a season low.
Rico Dowdle – snaps and opportunities have been on a three-week decline; he continues to be the more efficient rusher in the Carolina backfield.
Woody Marks – double-digit target rate in two straight weeks; 70% of the short-yardage attempts over the same span.

So Aaron Jones has two things working in his favor. The first is his role in the offense. There was no easing him back into the rotation. In fact, Jones’ 45% share of the carries was a season-high mark. Meanwhile, the veteran displaced Mason’s role as the RB1. The former 49er lost his status in the two-minute drill, and he wasn’t even the full-time option in short-yardage situations. Plus, Jones is getting his (rookie) QB back. J.J. McCarthy will retake the starting role with Carson Wentz going on season-ending IR. Minnesota was 31st in dropback over expectation rate across McCarthy’s two starts. Even if the offense takes a step back with the rookie learning the ropes, Jones’ opportunity within it should be worth targeting in a deal.

Buy Highs

Jaylen Waddle - +20% target rate in three of four games since Tyreek Hill injury; over 40% of the team’s air yards in all four contests.
Saquon Barkley – drop in snaps and carries due to in-game injury, but no long-term concern; season-high marks in adj. yards after contact per attempt and second-highest forced missed tackle rate.
D’Andre Swift – averaging 16.7 touches per game since the bye; taken over as primary short-yardage and goal-line option.

While the Bears’ passing game goes through its ups and downs, their running game has taken a step forward. Since their Week 5 bye, Swift’s rushing success rate (56.8%) and adj. yards after contact per attempt (4.5) are inside the Top 10. Granted, facing the Commanders, Saints and Ravens will give anybody that level of confidence and production. But taking on the Bengals and Giants over the next two weeks makes Swift a reasonable player to trade for despite the uptick in performance.

Oh, and I’ll toss Kareem Hunt onto the list of players to acquire. Isiah Pacheco has an MCL sprain and will be “week-to-week,” leaving the backfield to Hunt and rookie Brashard Smith. Either is worth getting onto your roster, but Hunt’s goal-line role should put him ahead in fantasy projections, assuming Pacheco misses time. But fantasy managers won’t give him up for nothing.

Finding the Right Fantasy Football Trade Value

I’ve mentioned this idea before, but names, along with opportunity, carry value. When you see “Ja’Marr Chase,” you don’t see or think 12.1 targets a game (I mean, I do). Descriptors like “first-round pick” or “Triple Crown” come into play. It’s like a tax. Things you debate in your league group chat. However, our Trade Analyzer tool helps cut through some of the noise. I’ll use it to review a few recent trades and see if they’re worth it on face value or if we can make some adjustments.

Trade 1

Give: Keenan Allen, Kenneth Gainwell
Receive: D’Andre Swift

At first glance, I don’t see how this deal gets done. If I have Swift, after watching him score at least 20 PPR points in three of his last four games, I’d want more in return. And, on the flip side, if Keenan Allen is on my roster, unless I have an abundance of WRs, I’m asking for a receiver or TE to maintain depth at either position. But let’s see what the analyzer says.

Swift has been producing, but the Bears are starting to look like Detroit in terms of the split within the backfield. Whether it’s HC Ben Johnson’s influence or his RB1’s groin injury, we’ve seen more and more of rookie Kyle Monangai, limiting Swift’s snaps and touches per our Utilization game logs.

So, like I said, I don’t mind trading for Swift. Johnson is going to do horrific things to my Bengals this weekend. However, I doubt anyone is looking to or excited about starting Kenneth Gainwell. Assuming there are other gaps to fill, I reworked the trade to make it more reasonable.

In hindsight, it’s less likely someone would have two RBs from the same backfield on their roster. But you could swap out Warren for someone like Alvin Kamara or Ashton Jeanty to get in the same range. And it’d stand to reason the person with Brock Bowers has found other options in his absence, making the trade possible. Regardless, finding useful players for both sides is the best way to get any deal completed.

Trade 2

Give: De’Von Achane, Marvin Harrison Jr., Kimani Vidal
Receive: Zay Flowers, Bijan Robinson

Honestly, this is a perfect trade. It’s not just because of the players. Think about the timing of this offer.

On one side, we’ve got the Dolphins’ offense looking explosive again, and Achane benefiting from Tua Tagovailoa’s uptick in play. And then there’s the news from HC Jim Harbaugh that Omarion Hampton might be ready to return soon, lessening Vidal’s value. Meanwhile, Bijan Robinson put up his worst performance of the season against the league’s worst run defense. A week ago, nobody would have accepted this deal. Now? It’s at least a discussion point.

Like I said, it’s a perfect trade. I’m pretty sure this is the first 50-50 trade I’ve reviewed. I wouldn’t change a thing. However, after Sunday, trading for Robinson doesn’t have the same appeal.

Week 9 (@ Patriots): 28th (PPR PPG Allowed to RBs), 32nd (Rushing YPG Allowed)
Week 10 (@ Colts): 27th, 25th
Week 11 (vs Panthers): 18th, 15th

Kirk Cousins couldn’t keep the passing game moving without Drake London. The Dolphins didn’t respect anything Atlanta tried to do on the ground. OC Zac Robinson didn’t adjust by using more offensive linemen. The result was Robinson’s fourth-fewest yards on the ground of his career. And now, he gets three weeks of the toughest defenses for rushers. Again, trying to acquire high-end players should be everyone’s objective. But by adding context, we can see which moves are best for our rosters.