Lots of fantasy analysts like to talk about "league winners" at this time of the year.

That's cool—but I'd rather focus on "team killers." The dudes who will bury your fantasy season before it even starts.

In a world aflame, wet blankets have a purpose.

Using our Fantasy Life ADP Draft Board, in this piece I'm highlighting the worst fantasy football pick you can make in each round.

Sounds like fun, right?

To access our ADP grid and the rest of our tools (like my 2025 draft rankings and season-long player projections), use promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.

The Worst Fantasy Football Pick in Every Round

Round 1

WR Justin Jefferson | Vikings

• My Projection: WR8
• ADP: WR2

In terms of talent, Justin Jefferson is a top-3 NFL WR, but his circumstances cap his ceiling and weaken his floor. Second-year QB J.J. McCarthy is unproven with zero NFL starts, and Jefferson (hamstring) is dealing with a soft-tissue injury, which could linger into the season.

In Round 1, I want to minimize risk—and Jefferson carries more risk this year than his ADP suggests. Jefferson is one of my most notable 2025 fantasy fades.

Round 2

WR Drake London | Falcons

• My Projection: WR20
• ADP: WR9

In my mind, Drake London is similar to Jefferson: He's a good player—he broke out with 1,271 yards receiving last season—but second-year QB Michael Penix Jr. is an uncertain asset with just three NFL career starts.

If Penix is bad, London could massively underperform his high ADP expectations. He's one of the 32 players I'm fading this year.

Round 3

WR Tee Higgins | Bengals

• My Projection: WR14
• ADP: WR12

I don't dislike Tee Higgins, but this is all about arbitrage: I think it makes little sense to take Higgins here when the comparable DeVonta Smith is available a couple of rounds later.

Plus, Higgins has missed 13 games to injury over the past four years.

Round 4

WR Garrett Wilson | Jets

• My Projection: WR35
• ADP: WR17

I talked about Garrett Wilson on a recent episode of the Fantasy Life Show with Ian Hartitz and Dwain McFarland. 

I have an astonishingly low projection for Wilson—but my gut agrees with it.

People are drafting Wilson based on his talent (three straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons), but I believe investors are underweighting the risk he could carry in an inefficient, slow, and run-heavy offense, given that QB Justin Fields is an average-at-best passer and OC Tanner Engstrand has never called plays before in the NFL.

Round 5

WR Courtland Sutton | Broncos

• My Projection: WR28
• ADP: WR23

In two seasons with offensive HC Sean Payton, the veteran Courtland Sutton has had success (1,853 yards receiving, 8.2 yards per target).

But he also turns 30 years old this season, and that's too old for a guy in Round 5 when he has never been elite.

Round 6

TE T.J. Hockenson | Vikings

• My Projection: TE9
• ADP: TE5

Like No. 1 WR Justin Jefferson, the veteran T.J. Hockenson probably has a capped ceiling and uncertain floor because of QB J.J. McCarthy.

Plus, I can't imagine taking Hockenson here when David Njoku is available two rounds later and rookies Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland after that.

As talented as he is, Hockenson is absolutely on my do-not-draft list.

Round 7

QB Bo Nix | Broncos

• My Projection: QB10
• ADP: QB8

Bo Nix is one of the QBs projected for 75+ carries, and that gives him a reasonable floor, but at this spot in the draft, I want to chase ceiling, and I doubt Nix really has that.

I think people are overstating how good Nix was last year as a rookie. He wasn't bad, but he was far from great, ranking No. 19 in composite EPA+ CPOE (0.081, per RBs Don't Matter) and No. 25 in AY/A (6.7).

I'd rather wait at the position and take another RB or WR in this spot.

Round 8

WR Chris Godwin | Buccaneers

• My Projection: WR58
• ADP: WR43

As good as Chris Godwin (ankle/foot) was last year (50-576-5 receiving in seven games), I can't draft the veteran this year.

Despite being recently activated from the PUP list, Godwin is yet to practice and unlikely to play until October.

On top of that, when he returns he might be behind rookie first-rounder Emeka Egbuka, and the Bucs offense might be worse this year with OC Josh Grizzard, who has never called plays before at any level of football.

Round 9

RB Cam Skattebo | Giants

• My Projection: RB45
• ADP: RB37

I like that the rookie is big (219 pounds) and can catch passes (45-605-4 receiving last year).

But starter Tyrone Tracy had 1,123 yards and 6 TDs last year, and veteran Devin Singletary has 5,769 yards across six seasons. And he's familiar with HC Brian Daboll's offense.

In Week 3 of the preseason, Cam Skattebo played while Tracy and Singletary (groin) rested.

There's a real chance that Skattebo will be the No. 3 RB in a mediocre offense for much of the season. 

Round 10

QB Justin Herbert | Chargers

• My Projection: QB22
• ADP: QB15

With HC Jim Harbaugh, OC Gregg Roman, and new RBs Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris, the Chargers are likely to have a slow and run-heavy offense that asks Justin Herbert to be more of an overqualified game manager than a consistent playmaker.

Round 11

QB C.J. Stroud | Texans

• My Projection: QB21
• ADP: QB17

In two NFL seasons, C.J. Stroud has 400 yards rushing. That's not gonna cut it, especially for a guy with an unproven playcaller in OC Nick Caley.

Round 12

TE Jonnu Smith (Steelers)

• My Projection: TE27
• ADP: TE17

Jonnu Smith broke out last year with the Dolphins (88-884-8 receiving on 111 targets), but now he's the No. 2 TE in an offense led by OC Arthur Smith—and in that same situation two years ago he had only 50-582-3 receiving.

With his circumstances, he has a capped ceiling.

Round 13

D/ST Denver Broncos

• My Projection: D/ST6
• ADP: D/ST 1

It's hard to predict which D/STs will be good and bad on a year-over-year basis, so this is way too early to address the position.

Round 14

RB Jerome Ford | Browns

• My Projection: RB63
• ADP: RB54

The veteran will need to compete for opportunities with fourth-round rookie Dylan Sampson … and eventually second-rounder Quinshon Judkins will sign with the team and push both of them down the depth chart.

Jerome Ford has 1,922 yards and 12 TDs over the past two seasons, but if the Browns wanted Ford to touch the ball in 2025, they wouldn't have drafted Judkins and Sampson this year.

Round 15

K Cameron Dicker | Chargers

• My Projection: K8
• ADP: K2

The dude has an elite 93.8% FG rate and an all-time surname, but this is too early for a K, especially one who isn't obviously better than the next few guys going after him.

Round 16

WR Xavier Legette (Panthers)

• My Projection: WR78
• ADP: WR65

He was drafted in Round 1 just last year, but Xavier Legette might be the No. 4 WR on his own team after Tetairoa McMillan, Adam Thielen, and Jalen Coker.

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