It's Week 13.

Thanksgiving. Turkey. Family and football.

Planes, Trains & Automobiles and pies.

On that note, it's time for my annual (and not at all arbitrary) pie rankings.

• No. 1,000: Mincemeat—disgusting, an abomination, a culinary crime against humanity
• No. 5: Apple—classic, no explanation needed
• No. 4: Key lime—with cranberry sauce
• No. 3: Pecan—nuts from Texas, bourbon from Kentucky, recipe from Louisiana
• No. 2: Pumpkin or sweet potato—they're the same, you can't convince me otherwise
• No. 1: Cherry—"Tastes so good, make a grown man cry"

If you disagree with this list, that's fine. This is America: Land of the free. You're entitled to be incorrect. Plus, there's truly no wrong way to partake in pie. Celebrate the season as you see fit.

This week, instead of breaking Freedman's Favorites into four separate positional articles, we're going old school with one combined and streamlined piece. In theory, this means that you and I (as well as the editors) will devote less time than usual getting through my analysis. Especially this week, that feels like a win-win-win scenario.

For those new to Freedman's Favorites, this is where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

• Favorable betting factors and situational spots
• Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
• Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, my Week 13 fantasy rankings, and my weekly projections, see the end of this piece.

To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code BF40 (as in "Black Friday 40% off!") to subscribe to the 12-month FantasyLife+ package. Sale lasts through Sunday 11/30.

Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings for Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday Games

If you're reading this after Thanksgiving, skip the next three sections. If you're reading this after Black Friday, skip the section after that.

Week 13 Thanksgiving Matchup Upgrades: Patrick Mahomes vs. Cowboys & Derrick Henry vs. Bengals

There are several "flow chart" defenses that are so bad that they provide automatic upgrades to whatever skill-position players they face. If a guy is facing one of them, I aggressively move him up my rankings. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Life DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, it just so happens that we get two of the league's biggest flow-chart defenses—the Cowboys and Bengals—playing on Thanksgiving.

• Cowboys: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+6.2) and WRs (+7.8)
• Bengals: No. 1 in largest fantasy boost allowed to RBs (+7.9) and TEs (+8.4)

Bang a gong.

QB Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) at Cowboys: Since No. 1 WR Rashee Rice returned in Week 7, Mahomes has averaged 292.6 passing yards across five games. The Chiefs are No. 1 with 65.5 plays per game in regulation and a 6% dropback rate over expected (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). When playing outside of Kansas City, Mahomes is 38-29-3 ATS (9.6% ROI) and 52-18 ML (21.0%, per Action Network).

RB Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs. Bengals: Since the Week 8 bye, Henry has 486 yards and 5 TDs on 99 carries and 9 targets. He seems like a virtual lock for 20+ opportunities as a 7.0-point home favorite, and the Ravens are No. 1 with an implied team total of 29.25 points. Additionally, the Bengals could once again be without first-team All-Pro EDGE Trey Hendrickson (hip).

WR Rashee Rice (Chiefs) at Cowboys: He has played in just five games this year—but in those contests he has put up 412 yards and 4 TDs on 47 targets and 4 carries. Rice has 16+ fantasy points in every game but one, and he could see extra work with No. 2 WR Xavier Worthy (ankle) dealing with an injury.

TE Mark Andrews (Ravens) vs. Bengals: QB Lamar Jackson returned to action in Week 9, and in the four games since then Andrews has only 118 scrimmage yards … but he also has 4 TDs on 16 targets and 5 carries. No. 2 WR Rashod Bateman (ankle) is uncertain to play, and in his one game against the Bengals last year Andrews had 6-68-1 receiving on 7 targets.

Week 13 Thanksgiving Upgrades: Home Favorite RBs & Indoor WRs

In general, I want to be heavy on RBs favored at home and WRs playing indoors. Here are a few Thanksgiving guys who fall into those categories.

RB Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs. Packers: HC Dan Campbell took over offensive play-calling duties in Week 10, and in the three games since then Gibbs has 582 yards and 6 TDs on 42 carries and 24 targets. The Lions have had the league's best home-field advantage over the past five years (+8.13, per NFElo), and the Packers could be without LB Quay Walker (neck).

WR Jameson Williams (Lions) vs. Packers: Williams did little last week (zero receptions, 3 targets), but in the three weeks prior following the bye he had 14-273-3 receiving on 20 targets with 1-9-0 rushing, and No. 3 WR Kalif Raymond (ankle) is uncertain to suit up. With QB Jared Goff, the Lions at home are 27-14-1 ATS (25.4% ROI), and the Packers could be without No. 1 CB Keisean Nixon (neck) and backup CB Nate Hobbs (knee).

WR Christian Watson (Packers) at Lions: Since his Week 8 return, Watson has been the No. 1 WR for the Packers with a 39% air yard share and 40% end zone target share, which he has translated into 17-283-2 receiving. No. 3 WR Matthew Golden (shoulder) could sit once again, and the Lions are dealing with secondary injuries to CB Terrion Arnold (concussion) and FS Kerby Joseph (knee).

Week 13 Thanksgiving Offensive Injury Upgrades: Ja'Marr Chase vs. Ravens & Brock Wright vs. Packers

Here are a couple Thanksgiving players who get an upgrade because of teammate injuries.

WR Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals) at Ravens: He should be rested off his one-week suspension, and now No. 2 WR Tee Higgins (concussion) is out. In two games against the Ravens last year, Chase went off with 21-457-5 receiving on 29 targets. It probably doesn't hurt that the Bengals this week will get back QB Joe Burrow (toe), who is 12-3 ATS (53.5% ROI) as a road dog of at least a field goal.

TE Brock Wright (Lions) vs. Packers: No. 1 TE Sam LaPorta (back, IR) has been out for the past two weeks, and in his absence Wright has earned 11 targets with a 69% route rate. If Wright (neck) happens to miss this game, then Anthony Firkser could be a disgustingly intriguing desperado flier in deep leagues.

Week 13 Black Friday Defensive Injury Upgrades: Saquon Barkley vs. Bears & Brock Wright vs. Packers

Here are a couple Black Friday players who get an upgrade because of defensive injuries.

RB Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs. Bears: In Guillotine Leagues, Barkley has gotten investors chopped numerous times this season … but he has had 15+ opportunities in every game but one, and he could enjoy an enhanced workload as a 7.0-point home favorite. For the Bears defense, LB Tremaine Edmunds (groin, IR) is out, and EDGE Dominique Robinson (head) and LBs T.J. Edwards (hand), Noah Sewell (elbow), and Ruben Hyppolite (shoulder) are questionable.

TE Colston Loveland (Bears) at Eagles: Despite playing alongside veteran TE Cole Kmet, the rookie Loveland over the past month has a 75 Utilization Score on a 65% route rate and 16% target share, which he has leveraged into 17-262-3 receiving. The Eagles could be without SS Andrew Mukuba (leg) and FS Reed Blankenship (thigh), both of whom exited last week early with injuries.

Week 13 Matchup Upgrades: TreVeyon Henderson vs. Giants & Troy Franklin vs. Commanders

Here are some of the flow-chart defenses playing on Sunday and Monday.

• Giants: No. 32 in defensive rush DVOA (19.9%)
• Bills: No. 31 in defensive rush EPA (0.078)
• Dolphins: No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (53.5%)
• Commanders: No. 31 in defensive dropback EPA (0.266)

Let's ride.

RB TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots) vs. Giants: Despite the return of veteran RB Rhamondre Stevenson, the rookie Henderson held onto his job as the No. 1 RB last week with 81 yards on 19 carries and 4 targets—and he could've had a massive day if he hadn't been stuffed at the 1-yard line on two separate drives. The Giants are missing LBs Micah McFadden (foot, IR), Darius Muasau (ankle, IR), and Chris Board (chest, IR),and EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (shoulder) and LB Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (neck) also might be out. As a 7.5-point home favorite, Henderson could dominate on Monday Night Football.

RB Jaylen Warren (Steelers) vs. Bills: Warren now is splitting work with No. 2 RB Kenneth Gainwell, but he still had 18-68-1 rushing last week, and for the season he's the No. 1 RB in tackles avoided per touch (30.7%). The Bills have struggled without DT Ed Oliver (biceps, IR), and even though the Steelers are 3.5-point underdogs, I want to invest in them: With HC Mike Tomlin, they're 13-4 ATS (47.8%) and 11-6 ML (60.6%) as home dogs off a loss.

WR Troy Franklin (Broncos) at Commanders: Usage ain't the same as production … but for the season Franklin is ahead of No. 1 WR Courtland Sutton in Utilization Score (67 vs. 66), target share (22% vs. 20), air yard share (37% vs. 31) and end zone targets (35% vs. 25). The Commanders are without CBs Marshon Lattimore (knee, IR) and Trey Amos (leg, IR), and they're No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 2 WRs (33.0%).

TE Juwan Johnson (Saints) at Dolphins: The Saints switched to QB Tyler Shough in Week 8, and in his four games since then Johnson has 18-222-2 receiving on 23 targets. And in his two games since the Saints traded WR Rashid Shaheed, Johnson has served as the No. 2 pass catcher (75% route rate, 79 Utilization Score). The Dolphins are No. 2 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (+3.5).

Week 13 Scoring Upgrades: Matthew Stafford & Colby Parkinson vs. Panthers

Sometimes upgrades are as simple as: "This team is going to score a lot of points, so we need to bump up the skill-position players."

After the Ravens (29.25 points), the Rams are No. 2 in implied team total (27.75) as 10.5-point road favorites in a game with a 45-point over/under.

Upgrade warranted.

QB Matthew Stafford (Rams) at Panthers: Since the Week 8 bye, he has passed for 964 yards and 13 TDs (with no INTs) in four games. Stafford is the rightful odds-on MVP favorite (-215, DraftKings), the Panthers are on a one-day deficit coming off Monday Night Football, and they could be without three starters in their defensive back seven: CB Jaycee Horn (concussion) and LBs Christian Rozeboom (hip) and Trevin Wallace (shoulder).

TE Colby Parkinson (Rams) at Panthers: No. 1 TE Tyler Higbee (ankle, IR) exited Week 11 early, and in his absence Parkinson in Week 12 served as the new No. 1 TE with a 53% route rate, which he leveraged into 4-41-1 receiving on 4 targets. With a TD in three straight games, Parkinson is evidence that a rising Stafford tide can lift all boats. The Panthers are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (32.9%).

Week 13 Offensive Injury Upgrades: Darnell Mooney vs. Jets & Chimere Dike vs. Jaguars

Here are some Sunday and Monday players who get an upgrade because of teammate injuries.

QB Teddy Bridgewater (Buccaneers) vs. Cardinals: Starting QB Baker Mayfield (shoulder) exited last week early, and in his place Bridgewater looked … not good (4.1 AY/A). But he has been respectable since the 2020 season (7.2 AY/A), and the Cardinals are No. 30 in defensive dropback SR (52.0%). For his career, Bridgewater is an elite 44-22 ATS (30.4% ROI).

RB Devin Neal (Saints) at Dolphins: No. 1 RB Alvin Kamara (knee) exited last week after 11 snaps, resulting in a 73% snap rate and 69% route rate for Neal as the in-game replacement. Given that Kamara could be out for multiple weeks, Neal is a waiver wire priority.

WR Darnell Mooney (Falcons) at Jets: I doubt that No. 1 WR Drake London (knee) will play after not practicing at all last week, when Mooney had a 43% air yard share in his absence. Mooney has an established connection with starter-turned-backup-turned-starter Kirk Cousins, and the Jets—having recently traded away CBs Sauce Gardner and Michael Carter—are No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA (38.2%).

WR Chimere Dike (Titans) vs. Jaguars: Without Nos. 1 & 2 WRs Calvin Ridley (fibula, IR) and Elic Ayomanor (hamstring), the rookie Dike had a 90% route rate last week and put up 5-44-1 receiving on 7 targets. I like that Dike gets work as a runner (8 carries) and returner (47 kick returns, 12 punt returns, 2 TDs), and the Jags could be without CB Jourdan Lewis (neck) in the slot, where Dike runs the supermajority of his routes. Although they're 6.5-point underdogs, I have the Titans rated as a five-star bet in our Fantasy Life Game Model.

Week 13 Defensive Injury Upgrades: Jacoby Brissett vs. Buccaneers & Hunter Henry vs. Giants

Here are some Sunday and Monday players who get an upgrade because of defensive injuries.

QB Jacoby Brissett (Cardinals) at Buccaneers: In his six starts this year, Brissett has passed for 1,887 yards and 11 TDs (with 3 INTs) and chipped in 23-98-1 rushing. The Bucs are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (21.0) and could be without EDGE Haason Reddick (ankle).

RB Quinshon Judkins (Browns) vs. 49ers: He does little as a pass catcher (zero targets last week), but in three games since the Week 9 bye Judkins has 55-181-2 rushing with a 75% rush share and 100% goal-line rush share. For the 49ers, EDGEs Nick Bosa (knee, IR), Mykel Williams (knee, IR), and Yetur Gross-Matos (knee, IR) and LB Fred Warner (ankle, IR) are out, and EDGEs Sam Okuayinonu (ankle) and Robert Beal (concussion) and LB Tatum Bethune (ankle) are questionable.

WR Michael Wilson (Cardinals) at Buccaneers: Over the past two games, Wilson has dominated (25-303-0 receiving, 25 targets) without No. 1 WR Marvin Harrison (appendicitis), who is still uncertain for Week 13. The Bucs might be without No. 1 CB Jamel Dean (hip) and backup CB Benjamin Morrison (hamstring).

TE Hunter Henry (Patriots) vs. Giants: Even with the return last week of WR Kayshon Boutte and No. 2 TE Austin Hooper, the veteran Henry had 7-115-1 receiving on 10 targets. With a team-high 82% snap rate and 75% route rate, Henry might be the most consistent pass catcher in the Pats offense. The Giants could be without SS Tyler Nubin (neck) once again this week.

TE Kyle Pitts (Falcons) at Jets: Pitts had a season-high 96% snap rate last week without No. 1 WR Drake London (knee), and the Jets—currently without SS Andre Cisco (pec, IR)—are No. 30 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (15.4%).

Week 13 Upgrades: Home Favorite RBs

Again, I want to invest in home favorite RBs. Here are a couple for the Sunday and Monday games who catch my eye.

RB De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs. Saints: He should be fresh off the Week 12 bye, and he has an electric 1,270 yards and 9 TDs on 164 carries, 71 targets and 94 Utilization Score in 11 games. With QB Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins at home are 24-10 ATS (34.3% ROI) when the temperature is at least 70 degrees—and the Sunday forecast is currently at 79.

RB Omarion Hampton (Chargers) vs. Raiders: Hampton (ankle, IR) has been designated to return, so he has a shot to suit up this week. In the two games immediately before he was sidelined in Week 5, the rookie Hampton broke out with 235 yards and a TD on 24 carries and 11 targets. I expect the Chargers to be rejuvenated out of the Week 12 bye.

Week 13 Upgrades: Air Yard WRs

The WRs who are targeted downfield—the guys with high aDOTs, air yard shares and WOPRs—have an elevated chance each week of enjoying a spike performance.

You can see aDOT, air yards and WOPR in our Fantasy Life Air Yards Tool. "WOPR" stands for "weighted opportunity rating," and it measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards.

Here are the air yard acrobats who have my attention this week. 

WR Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins) vs. Saints: Since Week 5, Waddle has a 53% air yard share and 33% end zone target share, which he has translated into 32-537-3 receiving in seven games without No. 1 WR Tyreek Hill (knee, IR). The Saints are exploitable at perimeter CB: Kool-Aid McKinstry is allowing 9.4 yards per target this year, and Quincy Riley is a Day 3 rookie.

WR Adonai Mitchell (Jets) vs. Falcons: In his two Jets games without No. 1 WR Garrett Wilson (knee, IR), Mitchell has an obscene 62% air yards share and 100% end zone target share with a 75% route rate. Sure … he has just 3-52-0 receiving on that usage … but a big game is within the range of outcomes.

Notes

Byes: This week, all teams are active.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings and projections. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings and projections schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
• Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
• Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
• Sun AM: Revise rankings
• Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 p.m. ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

• Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Team Total (TT)
• Moneyline (ML)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
• Short Down and Distance (SDD)
• Long Down and Distance (LDD)