Week 14 WR/CB Matchups To Target and Fade: Emeka Egbuka Set To Shine

There’s a light at the end of the tunnel. The feelings of exhaustion start to take hold around this time of year. We’re getting into the holiday season. Thoughts of taking time off work or school are turning into actual plans. But that doesn’t mean we don’t have fantasy rosters to manage. It’s the playoffs! If anything, these weeks matter the most. So, to help get you set for the weekend, I found five WR/CB matchups to consider as you’re setting your rosters for Week 14.

Wide Receiver Matchups to Target In Week 14

Christian Watson vs the Bears

The fact that Christian Watson underwent surgery for his torn ACL this calendar year, and he’s back out on the field, still boggles my mind. And he’s not just getting his cardio in while Jordan Love throws yet another pass off of his back foot. Since Watson has been up to a full-time route share, per our Utilization game logs, he’s been the primary option in the Packers’ passing game.

However, there are two things to note here. First, let’s focus on the “TGTS” and “Air Yards” columns. The numbers highlighted in blue indicate they were the most for the team during that week. In other words, independent of the context, Love has looked for Watson. His 25.6% target rate when Love has been under pressure ranks first among the GB pass catchers, and, of course, Watson has been the main guy if Love wants to take a shot to the end zone. However, we can find some volatility in the “ADOT” and “Catch TGTS” lines.

On the season, Love’s 8.5 air yards per attempt rank 12th amongst all starters. Those deep shots are fun when they hit, but tough to predict. So, it’s no surprise to see Watson sitting at 29th out of 54 WRs in catchable target rate over the last month. However, how he wins pokes at a specific weakness of Chicago’s.

Receiving Yards Allowed (to WRs since Week 6): 157.0, 7th-most
Explosive Pass Rate Allowed: 20.3%, 8th-most
PPR PPG Allowed: 44.5, 7th-most

A.J. Brown, on top of dropping a 12-132-2 statline on the Bears, got behind the secondary for a 33-yard score. DeVonta Smith took a corner route for 30 yards on his own explosive touch. It’s a recurring problem for HC Ben Johnson’s defense. In fact, the only team not to record a reception on a throw of at least 15 air yards in the last two months is Pittsburgh. So, between Watson’s opportunity share and Chicago’s lapses in coverage, Watson should be a staple of fantasy rosters in Week 14.

Courtland Sutton at the Raiders

So, I’m not going to lie to you. You might have to squint to see how Courtland Sutton pops up for a big game this weekend.

Honestly, without his TD against the Commanders, he’d be back in the WR3 range as he had been for the last month. Troy Franklin has become the WR1A, if not taken the top spot outright. Pat Bryant is hauling in deep targets. And then you’ve got Evan Engram reminding us he can run routes every few weeks or so. With the offense piloted by a skittish version of Bo Nix, quality targets are something of a rarity. However, the veteran receiver has a few things working in his favor.

The first is the play-calling. Without J.K. Dobbins on hand to plow into the end zone when the Broncos are in scoring position, Nix has had to take to the air more often. He’s thrown on 59.1% of the team’s red-zone snaps. One of which resulted in Sutton’s first score since Week 9. And if there were any positives to take away from his usage on Sunday night, Sutton was Nix’s target on 50% of his end-zone pass attempts. The next thing to consider is his defensive matchup.

Admittedly, the Raiders use zone concepts at the second-highest rate, which, by most efficiency metrics, Sutton falls behind his teammates. However, the perimeter of Las Vegas’ coverage has a gap in it. CB Kyu Blu Kelly has given up the fourth-most receiving yards of any corner with at least 100 snaps in coverage. Plus, with their issues in coverage, the Raiders have turned into something of a pass funnel after giving up six passing TDs to just three rushing scores over their last four games. The divisional rematch does create an extra layer of uncertainty, but Sutton’s (diminished) role in the offense should be worth the start in Week 14.

Sneaky WR/CB Matchups To Target In Week 14

Emeka Egbuka vs the Saints

OK, if you were to look at just the left half of Emeka Egbuka’s game log chart since Chris Godwin got back on the field, you’d be happy.

The rookie receiver continues to be the focal point of the Bucs’ passing game. He’s been at the top in targets and air yards in two straight weeks. However, we don’t get points per air (or prayer) yard. The boom weeks we got from Egbuka to start the season feel like a lifetime ago. Well, at least to us. Probably not Baker Mayfield.

Week 10: 31.1% (Pressure Rate), 31.1% (Blitz Rate), 5 (Hits/Sacks)
Week 11: 21.2%, 9.1%, 3
Week 12: 41.7%, 25.0%, 2
Week 13: 36.4%, 36.4%, 2

Tampa’s QB1 has been under fire almost every snap. The shifting personnel protecting him has been a problem for both him and his receivers. Luckily, the Saints have a bottom-10-ranked pass rush. Mayfield should have more time to operate in the pocket. Plus, New Orleans’ secondary shouldn’t pose any problems either.

Similar to the Raiders, the Bucs employ zone coverage at a high rate (83.7%, fifth-highest). On the season, Egbuka’s 2.37 yards per route run against zone ranks 15th amongst all WRs. Plus, with at least Chris Godwin back, defenders are keying on just the first-year receiver. It’s part of why the former Buckeye saw his catchable target rate spike in Week 13. In what should be a favorable matchup, Egbuka should be able to get back into the WR2 conversation after Sunday.

Michael Wilson vs the Rams

Note: Marvin Harrison Jr. was ruled out on Friday with a heel injury. This vaults Michael Wilson right back into the top 12 because of the volume he saw when MHJ was out before.

At first glance, you’d be hard-pressed to find the difference between Harrison and Wilson with the two back on the field together.

Both WRs had the same target rate, and their air yard shares were similar, too. I mean, even their looks in obvious passing situations and into the end zone were close enough. But a few metrics help paint a different picture.

Slot Target Rate: 42.9% (Harrison), 11.1% (Wilson)
Yards per Route Run: 2.38, 0.84
Catchable Target Rate: 86%, 43%

To be fair, YPRR from a single game is useless when trying to predict future success. But if we’re trying to contextualize or contrast past performance, we’re safe. Anyway, you can see how Harrison started to pull away from Wilson in terms of production. One of them (Wilson) held onto the X-receiver role, running primarily out-breaking routes from the perimeter. Meanwhile, Jacoby Brissett targeted Harrison on multiple quick-hitter concepts, giving him the chance to work after the catch.

However, we can't ignore the sheer volume that Wilson saw in the two games with Harrison sitting. In Weeks 11 and 12, Wilson combined for 33 targets, 25 receptions and 303 yards. He put up UR scores of 94 and 97, respectively, in those weeks. At 6-foot-2, 213 pounds, Wilson is not as big as Tetairoa McMillan, who beat the Rams deep for a 43-yard game-winning score, but he is still a big-bodied receiver who could do some damage in a game where the Cardinals will need to throw to keep up with the Rams.