
Ian Hartitz goes the extra mile, delivering 11 storylines to follow for Week 7 of the NFL season, starting off with Davante Adams being traded to the Jets.

And just like that: Week 7 is upon us. Let's break down some ball!
Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.
This week we'll actually have 11 storylines because Tuesday was absolute madness and I already had 10 written before the Browns decided to trade Amari Cooper to the Bills. Cool? Cool.
As always: It's a great day to be great.
The Jets wasted no time upgrading their team following a disappointing flag-filled Monday night loss to the Raiders, as Aaron Rodgers general manager Joe Douglas pulled the trigger on a trade to acquire longtime stud WR Davante Adams in exchange for a 3rd-round pick that could upgrade to a 2nd rounder if certain performance thresholds are hit.
While taking on the rest of the 31-year-old veteran's contract might not be the best long-term idea, there's little argument that the Jets are a better football team today than they were last week. Adams' performance hasn't been up to his usual elite standards during his last 20 games, but it's fairly easy to point the finger at his subpar QB play: Both Gardner Minshew (+0.046, 26th) and Aidan O'Connell (+0.012, 31st) rank outside the league's top-25 signal-callers in EPA+CPOE composite score this season, which is one of the better advanced metrics we have to evaluate any QB's per-play success and overall accuracy.
Now, Rodgers ranks just 24th (+0.054) in that metric; it's not like the 40-year-old ayahuasca fanatic is necessarily still playing at the top of his game. Still, this addition suddenly pushes him up into the borderline QB1 conversation alongside names like Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins, as A-aron is suddenly working with his best one-two punch at WR since the Adams-Randall Cobb days.
Updated Fantasy Life Projections firmly expect Adams to work as Rodgers' new No. 1 WR in New York:
Fire up Adams as a mid-tier WR2 the rest of the way assuming his "hamstring" injury was more discontent than anything, while Wilson should be downgraded to more of a low-end WR2 option without the benefit of weekly double-digit target total. It'd be surprising if Lazard maintains too much fantasy relevance with the potential to now be splitting snaps with Williams (who is reportedly on the trade block for what it's worth).
As for the Raiders: Brock Bowers' back-to-back sterling 8-97-1 and 9-71-0 performances without Adams look like a sign of more goodness to come; the only TE I'd confidently rank ahead of the stud rookie the rest of the way is Travis Kelce. It's also fair to be encouraged about Jakobi Meyers, although his existing ankle injury isn't ideal, and the aforementioned suspect (to be nice) QB play leaves him as more of a weekly low-end WR3 as opposed to someone who will NEED to be in fantasy lineups of most shapes and sizes.
Speaking of longtime baller WRs being traded…
The Browns are getting a 3rd-rounder and a late-round pick swap, the Bills get the 30-year-old veteran with seven 1,000-plus yard seasons to his name.
It wasn't that long ago that Cooper was putting up some serious numbers on the gridiron. In fact, he gained a career-high 1,250 yards literally last season, notably going absolutely bonkers (11-265-2!) in his final regular-season game of the year.
Of course, 2024 hasn't been nearly as kind to the ex-Raider/Cowboy/Brown. Pick any efficiency or counting stat and you'll find a career-low mark for the longtime No. 1 WR. Overall, Cooper sits as just the WR46 in PPR points per game through six weeks of action.
That said: Deshaun Watson is most people's idea of the NFL's worst starting QB at the moment, and accordingly Cooper hasn't exactly received a steady dose of catchable passes. He actually leads the NFL in unrealized air yards at the moment (many of which have been of the uncatchable variety). Watching the ol’ film has also shown a player who doesn't appear overly thrilled to be on the football field (can't exactly blame him), which has likely contributed to him dropping 6 passes already–tied for the most in the league. Overall, ESPN Analytics' advanced receiver ratings have Cooper ranked as the NFL's single-worst WR after six weeks of action.
Age and on-field evidence tell us that the Bills probably aren't getting the best version of Cooper, but maybe the massive QB upgrade will be enough to outweigh that. After all, Josh Allen (deservingly) is on pretty much anyone's short list of the very best signal-callers in the NFL, and we certainly saw what Stefon Diggs was able to do as his No. 1 WR over the years.
Here's the big question: Is the current edition of this Joe Brady-led Bills offense even interested in overly enabling a high-end fantasy WR? Diggs' second half of last season was memorably brutal as far as production was concerned, and this year hasn't been much better for the involved parties (Khalil Shakir as the WR40 in PPR points per game leads the way). It's not a stretch to now call Cooper easily the best WR on the Bills roster, but this is still an offense with a 49.3% pass-play rate on the season–the fifth-lowest mark in the NFL ahead of only the Packers (skewed by Malik Willis starts), Chargers, Steelers, and Ravens.
How I'm now approaching the involved parties in fantasy land:
Whew, what a Tuesday. Oh wait, there was another big news story?
NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports the Steelers plan to give Russell Wilson first-team reps in practice this week, "putting him in line" to make his season debut and start Sunday night against the Jets.
Now, I won't sit here and say the Steelers have been a high-flying aerial masterpiece with Justin Fields under center this season. They wouldn't rank 20th in scoring and 27th in total passing yards if they were.
That said: The ex-Bears signal-caller has put forward respectable marks in completion percentage over expected (+2.5%, 13th ahead of C.J. Stroud and Josh Allen) and EPA per dropback (+0.101, 16th ahead of Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts) in addition to his usual goodness on the ground. Mind you this has been inside of a passing game with *one* pass catcher who most people would consider good at football and behind an injury-riddled offensive line that has hardly made life easy.
Does this version of Fields hold a candle to prime Russell Wilson? Nope, but we also haven't seen that version of DangeRuss for quite some time. The 35-year-old veteran is fresh off averaging a career-low 6.9 yards per attempt and ranked lowly in both EPA per dropback (+0.020, 29th) and PFF pass grade (69.8, 24th) during his two-year stint in Denver.
Subbing in Wilson for Fields might raise the immediate floor of the passing game, although it remains to be seen if that will be an actual improvement to the offense as a whole considering how lacking the team's receiver cupboard is at the moment. Reminder: Van f*cking Jefferson is a full-time WR for Pittsburgh in the year 2024.
Move George Pickens and the team's RBs up the ranks, but even then we aren't exactly cooking with gas ahead of a matchup with Sauce Gardner and the Jets. The Steelers are currently implied to score just 18.25 points (3rd lowest) this week; close start/sit decisions involving anyone in this sad excuse for an NFL offense should continue to go to the other guy.
Of course, certain matchups can always upgrade or downgrade these sorts of situations during any given week. This takes us to our next question…
It's certainly always a plus to get a good matchup for our fantasy players, although we shouldn't necessarily let a perceived on-paper advantage completely rewrite our rankings. Use good or bad matchups as more of a tiebreaker; it's still preferable to follow volume, individual talent, and good offensive environments above all else.
That said: The following five passing attacks sure look ready to explode over the next month or so of action thanks to both their own inherent goodness as well as an awfully enticing and smashable schedule:
Houston Texans (GB, IND, NYJ, DET, DAL): The Packers and Jets matchups aren't ideal, but then again the potential for both spots to turn into fantasy-friendly shootouts hardly makes them matchups to avoid. Ultimately, this C.J. Stroud-led passing game is capable of putting up points on anyone; both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell need to be started in lineups of all shapes and sizes as long as Nico Collins (hamstring, IR) remains sidelined. Also, don't be surprised if Dalton Schultz breaks out of his early-season slump before too long—perhaps even this Sunday against the league's third-worst defense in PPR points per game allowed to opposing TEs.
Minnesota Vikings (DET, LAR, IND, JAX): Not only are Sam Darnold and Co. set up well coming out of their bye with four consecutive matchups against secondaries that fantasy managers should be salivating to attack, but the Vikings offense is also tentatively expected to welcome back stud TE T.J. Hockenson this week. Don't be surprised if the clock doesn't strike midnight on Darnold's Cinderella story for at least another month or two: He has the potential to work as possibly THE fantasy QB1 during this stretch; it's pretty wild to see him rostered in only 56% of Yahoo and 45% of ESPN leagues at the moment.
New York Jets (PIT, NE, HOU, ARZ, IND): No, T.J. Watt and Co. aren't exactly the sort of "welcome to New York!" matchup that Adams' fantasy managers would prefer, but after that? Giddyup: The Patriots already brought out the best of Rodgers back in Week 3, while the Texans, Cardinals, and Colts each rank 10th or worse in passing TDs allowed this season.
Philadelphia Eagles (NYG, CIN, JAX, DAL, WSH, LAR, BAL, CAR): Credit to the Giants for now allowing more than 21 points in a game this season, but otherwise? This stretch is borderline erotic for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith fantasy managers. Overall, each of these defenses rank 20th or worse in EPA allowed per dropback this season; don't be surprised if AJB works as THE fantasy WR1 for the better part of the next two months, while Smith also has weekly upside WR2 potential–especially with Dallas Goedert (hamstring) currently banged up.
Green Bay Packers (HOU, JAX, DET): A shootout with C.J. Stroud and the Texans is followed by back-to-back pristine matchups with pass-funnel defenses that are sturdy enough in the front-seven to incentivize the opposition to attack their flimsy secondary. Further helping matters is a passing game that is suddenly more condensed than usual due to injury.
Speaking of that latter point …
Three offenses unfortunately look like they'll need to operate with a WR room at less than 100% in Week 7 and potentially beyond:
New Orleans Saints: Neither Chris Olave (concussion) nor Rashid Shaheed (knee) managed to practice on Monday or Tuesday ahead of their Thursday night matchup with the Broncos. While Denver's formidable secondary is banged up itself with Pat Surtain II (concussion) probably sidelined, it's tough to be TOO confident in the likes of Bub Means or Mason Tipton (real people, I swear) in an offense led by promising, albeit erratic, rookie QB Spencer Rattler. Ultimately, I'd place my chip on Means being the most FLEX-worthy play of the WRs; the rookie deserves credit for tying Shaheed for the team lead in targets last week (8), but perhaps the real winner will be TE Juwan Johnson–someone who has flashed tantalizing receiving ability in past years and posted a season-high route rate of 75% last week. He's a quality waiver wire fill in for teams that need a one-week answer at the position with Jake Ferguson and Cole Kmet on bye.
Arizona Cardinals: Could be without No. 4 overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. (concussion) if the league's seemingly longer-than-usual concussion protocol practices continue. While Kyler Murray and the passing game as a whole have disappointed, the absence of Marv would be a nice boost for Michael Wilson and (to a lesser extent) Greg Dortch as well as recently reinstated Zay Jones. Give the Cardinals' second-year talent credit for already posting usable PPR WR26, WR27, and WR35 finishes this season; Wilson deserves to be in the low-end WR3 conversation ahead of Sunday's matchup with the Chargers, even if TE Trey McBride still profiles as the lead target.
Green Bay Packers: Fantasy managers simply can't have nice things: Dontayvion Wicks (shoulder) is considered week to week and seems unlikely to suit up ahead of the Packers' potential shootout with the Texans. Obviously, Jayden Reed was a weekly locked-in starter before Wicks' injury, but don't discount the potential for Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson to build off their respectively solid Week 6 performances during the Packers' aforementioned cozy upcoming stretch. Fantasy Life Director of Analytics/all-around baller Dwain McFarland highlighted both as viable "Not available in my league, pal!" waiver wire options for those of us not playing in complete sicko leagues.
Man, the injury Gods really have been dickheads this year, huh? Let's continue breaking down some of the sad ramifications.
Jaguars RB Travis Etienne (hamstring) is considered week to week and looks unlikely to suit up for the Jaguars' London-themed matchup with the Patriots this Sunday.
While you might be ready to pencil in waiver wire darling Tank Bigsby for a workhorse role, we did see some troubling utilization out of this backfield in Week 6.
You're reading that right: D'Ernest Johnson easily outpaced Bigsby in both snaps (57% vs. 27%) and (especially) routes (56% vs. 12%) during the Jags' blowout loss to the Bears.
Of course, that game script is probably our best explanation for why this happened. Reminder: Bigsby has been fantastic as a rusher this season on his way to averaging an NFL-high 7.2 yards per carry. He still out-carried Johnson 7-to-6 despite the discrepancy in snaps; it'd make sense if a more neutral or even positive game script leads to 15-plus touches for the second-year talent—something that should be on the table with the Jags currently sitting as 5.5-point favorites over the lowly Patriots.
Note that this Patriots defense has hardly been a unit to overly fear this season. Overall, they've allowed the fourth-most PPR points per game to opposing RBs, specifically already allowing solid afternoons at the office to more than a few individuals:
While we aren't exactly looking at a locked-in top-10 option at the position–there's too much risk for the Jaguars to suck or in fact split things more evenly than expected–I will be firing up Bigsby as a recommended top-15 start ahead of guys like De'Von Achane, Chase Brown, Najee Harris, and Bucky Irving among other RBs who also aren't exactly looking at clear-cut workhorse roles in Week 7.
Sadly, this is just one of MANY backfields that fantasy managers need to monitor this week.
At the risk of making this article too depressing/long, we'll devote a maximum of two short sentences to the following injury-riddled backfields and what fantasy managers should do IF the starter does, in fact, miss Week 7:
Yikes. That was rough to get through. It sure seems like that RB position deals with a lot of injuries. I wonder if there are any lesser-owned handcuffs that fantasy managers could look to be ahead on?
While the following backfields are lucky enough to not actively be dealing with an injury to their starter, that doesn't mean the associated RB2 couldn't be relied on at some point should disaster strike. Don't be afraid to dig deep on these potential *future* waiver wire darlings should you have the available bench space in deeper leagues:
OK, enough of looking at the future: Let's dig into some juicy matchup nuggets ahead of Week 7 specifically.
Every week I put together a group of charts meant to provide easy-to-decipher matchup advantages on both sides of the ball in a handful of categories. This includes combined explosive pass/run-play rates, pressure, yards before contact, pass yards per dropback, and EPA per play. The idea is to have one metric to show a mismatch instead of always going, "Offense ranks X, defense ranks Y."
Without further adieu: The week's biggest mismatches in these ever-important categories. Feel free to click on any of the below categories for a full chart.
I remain steadfast in the idea that no NFL game is inherently "bad." Complaining about specific matchups is ignoring the reality that relatively *bad* football is so much better than *no* football; we should NEVER dismiss any given 60 minutes of professional action on the gridiron.
With that said: Some matchups are indeed more awesome than others, so let's take a quick second to rank every matchup of the week in terms of what I'm looking forward to most through my own biased lenses:
Every week I'll put my reputation on the line regarding a handful of players I believe could outperform their general fantasy-related expectations. The majority will NOT work out—they wouldn't be bold otherwise—but will that stop me? Hell no!
Without further adieu: Let's get weird.
Players highlighted last week and results: David Montgomery (12-80-2), Dontayvion Wicks (1-9-0, injured after 10 snaps), and Tank Dell (7-57-1).
