We're fully in the heart of draft season now.

The franchise tag period begins today (Feb. 17), and the NFL scouting combine starts next week (Feb. 23).

And that means it's time to update my mock draft.

I'm not one to brag, but …

For the 2025 draft, I was No. 1 in big board accuracy and No. 3 in mock accuracy. Since 2020, I'm the No. 1 mocker in the known universe.

For all of our draft coverage, check out our Fantasy Life NFL Draft Hub.

2026 Mock Draft

NFL Mock Draft Methodology for 2026

Here's an outline of my mock process.

1. Identify the 32 players most likely to go in Round 1.
2. Order players correctly within their position groups.
3. Match teams with positions of need.
4. Attempt to mock players within their likely draft ranges.

I think of this process as if it's a puzzle. 

First, I settle on the individual pieces to assemble, and then I try to put them together to create a reasonable-looking picture. I always know the final product will be more Picasso than Realism: Jagged, distorted and just maybe a little bit genius. 

No trades: I don't like stacking randomness on top of chaos. A tradeless mock isn't realistic, but it might be more accurate. Plus, I think for the past half-decade, people have tended to overestimate the number of trades that will actually happen in Round 1.

"Must Include" Prospects in Round 1

So much will change over the next few weeks (and months), but right now, here are the 23 players I feel I must include in current mock iterations.

I think they all have an 80% chance (or better) to go in Round 1 (unless something drastically changes between now and the draft).

• QB: Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)
• RB: Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
• WR: Carnell Tate (Ohio State), Jordyn Tyson (Arizona State), Makai Lemon (USC), Denzel Boston (Washington)
• TE: Kenyon Sadiq (Oregon)
• OT: Francis Mauigoa (Miami), Spencer Fano (Utah), Kadyn Proctor (Alabama), Caleb Lomu (Utah)
• OG: Olaivavega Ioane (Penn State)
• EDGE: Arvell Reese (Ohio State), Rueben Bain (Miami), David Bailey (Texas Tech), Keldric Faulk (Auburn), Cashius Howell (Texas A&M)
• DT: Peter Woods (Clemson)
• LB: Sonny Styles (Ohio State)
• CB: Mansoor Delane (LSU), Jermod McCoy (Tennessee), Avieon Terrell (Clemson)
• S: Caleb Downs (Ohio State)

If not for his season-ending ACL tear, I also would've included WR Chris Bell (Louisville) on this list, but now—like CBs Benjamin Morrison and Shavon Revel last year—he will probably fall to Day 2 due to injury.

"Want to Include" Prospects for Round 1

After the aforementioned players, here are six other guys I definitely want in Round 1 (as of now).

• WR: Kevin "KC" Concepcion (Texas A&M)
• OT: Monroe Freeling (Georgia)
• EDGE: Akheem Mesidor (Miami)
• DT: Caleb Banks (Florida), Kayden McDonald (Ohio State)
• LB: CJ Allen (Georgia)

Over the past few weeks, Concepcion, Banks, McDonald and Allen have all dropped from my "must include" to my "want to include" cohort, while Freeling and Mesidor have jumped up from my "borderline" group.

As always, player evaluation and sentiment are in flux.

With Concepcion, other WRs have risen up the ranks to challenge him.

With Banks, McDonald, and Allen: They play positions that tend to be devalued.

With Freeling and Mesidor: They play premium positions, and both have received enough hype over the past month that I feel comfortable including them in mocks now almost as a matter of course.

Borderline Prospects for Round 1

All of this leaves me with three more spots available in Round 1.

Here are my top 20 candidates to fill those spots.

• QB: Ty Simpson (Alabama)
• WR: Zachariah Branch (Georgia), Chris Brazzell (Tennessee), Malachi Fields (Notre Dame)
• OT: Blake Miller (Clemson), Max Iheanachor (Arizona State), Gennings Dunker (Iowa)
• OG: Emmanuel Pregnon (Oregon)
• EDGE: T.J. Parker (Clemson), Zion Young (Missouri), R. Mason Thomas (Oklahoma)
• DT: Lee Hunter (Texas Tech), Christen Miller (Georgia)
• LB: Anthony Hill (Texas), Jake Golday (Cincinnati)
• CB: Brandon Cisse (South Carolina), Colton Hood (Tennessee), Keith Abney (Arizona State)
• S: Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (Toledo), Dillon Thieneman (Oregon

Most mocks have Simpson locked into Round 1 (usually going to the Jets, Steelers or Rams), but I don't think he belongs in the top 32. 

For a first-year starter, Simpson was good last year (3,567 yards, 28 TDs, 5 INTs on a 64.5% completion rate, 90-93-2 rushing in 15 starts). He looked the way one would want a former five-star recruit to look early in his career—but that's the problem with Simpson: He didn't earn the starting job until he was a redshirt junior, and as an NFL rookie, he'll be 24 years old. In retrospect, it's concerning that two different coaching staffs named Jalen Milroe the starter over him in the 2023-24 seasons.

On top of that, Simpson has only modest size (6-2, 208 pounds). His rushing ability is almost nonexistent. His arm strength is average. His accuracy, judgment and technique disappear under pressure. And his play fell off in the second half of the season (6.5 AY/A in Games 8-15 vs. 10.3 in Games 1-7).

I'm planting a flag here. I don't think he belongs in Round 1. I eventually might capitulate and put him back in my mock—but my relatively bold prediction for now is that Simpson will fall to Day 2.

So who am I putting in Round 1?

Parker was in my "must include" group just a few weeks ago, but I've since dropped him into my borderline assembly. I think he belongs in the top 32, especially after his strong Senior Bowl showing, but I think he's now firmly behind Mesidor, and that puts him on the margins of Round 1. 

McNeil-Warren has gotten a ton of hype over the past few weeks, so I've been trying him out in my mocks. Here's the issue: The S position tends to be devalued in the draft. As much as I think he belongs in the top 10, I'm skeptical we'll actually see S Caleb Downs go that high—and so I feel especially uncertain about putting another S in Round 1.

But for now, I'm giving McNeil-Warren a spot—but it comes at the expense of Hood, who had previously been included. At CB, he and Cisse are close, and after his Senior Bowl showing, Hood might jump Cisse as I have more time to compare them, but for now, I'm still giving Cisse the edge.

NFL Mock Draft Analysis

As we get closer to the draft, I'll provide pick-by-pick analysis in my mocks. For now, here are some general thoughts.

Mock Draft Building Blocks & Beads on a String

Each year, I develop what I think of as "building blocks" as I cycle through iterations of my mocks. I also think of this/that team/player combos as beads on a string.

Here are some of the early mock blocks and beads I see (as of now).

• Picks 1-6: However it works out, I think we see one QB, one WR, two OTs and two EDGEs in the top six.
• EDGEs Rueben Bain & David Bailey: I expect them to battle for the No. 2 EDGE spot.
• Picks 7 & 10: If the Commanders take S Caleb Downs at No. 7, then the Bengals at No. 10 will take an EDGE. If the Commanders go EDGE, then Downs will go No. 10.
• RB Jeremiyah Love & S Caleb Downs: If either of them falls to the Cowboys at No. 12, I expect him to be the selection.
• LB Sonny Styles & EDGE Cashius Howell: The Cowboys at No. 12 is the earliest either player will go.
• Picks 12 & 20: The Cowboys will draft an EDGE with one pick. With the other, they will go either LB or CB (unless Love or Downs is available).
• Picks 13 & 29: The Rams will draft CB with one pick. With the other, they go OT (unless they want QB Ty Simpson or a WR who falls).
• TE Kenyon Sadiq: Picks 15-23 are his wheelhouse.
• Picks 17 & 23: If the Lions go EDGE at No. 17, the Eagles will go OT at No. 23. If the Lions go OT, then Eagles EDGE.
• S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren: If he goes in Round 1, then Nos. 18-26 are his wheelhouse.
• WR Makai Lemon: I doubt he will fall past the Steelers at No. 21. He'd be such a perfect complement to WR DK Metcalf.
• Picks 21 & 27: If the Steelers take QB Ty Simpson at No. 21, then the 49ers will get a WR at No. 27. But if the Steelers opt for WR, the 49ers will pivot to OT.
• Picks 22 & 28: If the Chargers take G Olaivavega Ioane at No. 22, the Texans will take DT at No. 28 (unless the 49ers pass on OT at No. 27). But if the Chargers go DT, the Texans will take Ioane at No. 28 no matter what.
• Picks 6 & 24: The Browns will draft WR and OT with their two picks. Right now, I think it will be easier for them to get a WR they like at No. 24, so I expect an OT at No. 6.
• Picks 25, 30 & 31: The Bears will take either EDGE or DT at No. 25. Whichever of those positions is left will be in play along with LB for the Broncos and Patriots at Nos. 30-31.

The Top 10

The top 10 of my mock is fairly chalky, and I'm OK with that.

In terms of talent, I think almost everyone has at least these nine players (in some order) in the top 10.

• QB: Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)
• RB: Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame)
• WR: Carnell Tate (Ohio State)
• OT: Francis Mauigoa (Miami), Spencer Fano (Utah)
• EDGE: Arvell Reese (Ohio State), Rueben Bain (Miami), David Bailey (Texas Tech)
• S: Caleb Downs (Ohio State

And then most of the teams in the top 10 have fairly defined needs, many of which match up fairly well with the high-end players available.

So I'm fine with the chalk—at least for now.

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